Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this article and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect, or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The information contained in this article does not constitute a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the recipient, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, investment, accounting, or tax advice through this article or to its recipient. This article is being provided for educational purposes only. If those timelines are correct, then AI adoption would likely start having a meaningful impact on the U.S. That said, a significant majority expect to have adopted AI over a three- to 10-year horizon. Likewise, CEO surveys show less than a quarter expect generative AI will impact their company or lower their labor needs over the next one to three years. In the 2021 American Business survey, only 4% of US firms reported using AI in their business processes. Our economists’ previous research has shown that such mentions tend to predict increases in company-level capital spending. Roughly half of that spike came after the release of ChatGPT in the fourth quarter of 2022. While the timing of the AI investment cycle is hard to predict, business surveys suggest that it’s likely to start having an investment impact in the second half of this decade, with earlier adoption by larger firms in information and professional, scientific, and technical services.Īnd even though it will take time for AI to boost productivity, market interest in AI has already increased rapidly, with more than 16% of companies in the Russell 3000 mentioning the technology on earnings calls, up from less than just 1% of those firms in 2016. Positive dynamics for Palantir Technologies shares will prevail with possible volatility of 3.816. and 1.5 to 2.5% of GDP in other major AI leaders, if Goldman Sachs Research’s AI growth projections are fully realized. Palantir Technologies Stock Forecast 08-31-2023. Over the longer-term, AI-related investment could peak as high as 2.5 to 4% of GDP in the U.S. While a similar effect could also play out in other AI leaders (such as China), the investment impact will likely be smaller and more delayed. The U.S., meanwhile, is positioned as the market leader in AI technology, and American companies will likely be relatively early adopters, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Those investments, which could amount to around $200 billion globally by 2025, will probably happen before adoption and efficiency gains start driving major gains in productivity.ĪI-related investment is climbing from a relatively low starting point and will likely take a few years to have a major impact on the economy, Briggs and Kodnani write. But for large-scale transformation to happen, businesses will need to make significant upfront investment in physical, digital, and human capital to acquire and implement new technologies and reshape business processes. All Rights Reserved.Generative AI has enormous economic potential and could boost global labor productivity by more than 1 percentage point a year in the decade following widespread usage, Goldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani write in the team’s report. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2019 and/or its affiliates. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc.2019. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes.
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